Predicting Oscar winners at the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences annual Academy Awards show is a longstanding tradition among movie geeks, entertainment industry press, and people with too much time on their hands. Who else likes guessing the Oscars? Data scientists demonstrating the power of their prediction models, that’s who. That’s the case with Farsite, an analytics division of IT services provider ICC.
The analytics folks at Farsite have posted their annual Oscar night predictions, as well as a brief overview of how their statistical model works. If last year’s predictions are any indication, Farsite’s data geeks are either very good at movie-award prognostication — or really lucky.
“We accurately predicted 5 out of 6 winners in the top categories for the 2013 Oscars: Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress and Best Director. And we’re back here in 2014 to do it all again,” the company boasts.
Before taking a closer look at Farsite’s statistical model, let’s run through its predictions for the 2014 Oscars, which take place on Sunday, March 2. Based on current data, the Best Picture winner will be (drumroll, please) 12 Years a Slave.